Thursday, January 17, 2013

Threats Facing the Middle Class

In some ways the middle class is very real, in other ways the middle class is just a theoretical construct (with moving goalposts). So, what are some of the challenges i see facing the middle and working class?

Threats:
 1) Population:
- The increase in number of available workers (the supply if you will) has increased.  What this will serve to do, in the best case scenario is keep down wages/compensation.  i have long believed that population is inflationary (increasing the prices of anything from groceries to housing costs).  In other words, the demand would shift (number of buyers is one of the condition where that happens) in those sectors.  The way it shifts is not likely to benefit consumers. 

2) The Government:
- The US government, in particular, has done a really good job of setting up the American worker for failure.  What do i mean?  In a more globalized world (where competition is international instead of purely domestic) the US government has put the worker behind the proverbial 8 ball.  The government sets forth somewhat strict restrictions that deal with the work day, etc.  The more hurtful thing the government does can be seen in the form of taxation.  Social security and medicare (two train wrecks) add additional costs to hiring US workers that many less developed countries are not saddled with.  The consequent cost increases to the employer necessitate higher productivity numbers in order for the company to survive.  i always worry that the government will (unintentionally) set the bar for American workers too high. 

Additionally, the government debt is nothing more than a hidden tax. In the long term you may have to worry about inflation (possible the hyper kind) and direct government in the economy (a bad thing). 

3) Unions:
- Yet another entity that seeks to set costs at a higher than market level.  Unions have been responsible (or at least partially so) for such things as overtime rules, working conditions, etc.  This just adds to the cost for the employer.  For the working class, it will also limit employment opportunities (and hours available) as businesses try to avoid paying benefits (which would further increase costs).  The whole goal of unions is to get compensation beyond market conditions (which in turn leads to less opportunity).  No government employee (paid by the tax payer) should be allowed to belong to a union.  The unions did a pretty good job of killing US manufacturing.

4) Globalization:
 - Sure globalization can get you cheaper TVs and toys, however, on the employment front things are different.  Globalization basically means more competition in more places (for the worker).  In the third most populous country in the world, this may not be a good thing.  With its population, eventually the US should be a country of cheap workers.  i think it will happen, but it is a matter of when.  In other words, based off of population concerns - eventually wages and standard of living should drop precipitously in the US. 


To summarize (sort of)... the working and lower middle class face some serious problems in the future.  These problems have been a long time in the making and the solutions will not be pretty.  Basically, the worker faces static or declining wages, less benefits and less hope for the future.  Near static wages coupled with accelerated inflationary period.  In other words, they earn less more but have to spend more to accommodate their lifestyles.  There should also be less opportunity.   

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