In some ways the middle class is very real, in other ways the middle class is
just a theoretical construct (with moving goalposts). So, what are some of the
challenges i see facing the middle and working class?
Threats:
1)
Population:
- The increase in number of available workers
(the supply if you will) has increased. What this will serve to do, in the best
case scenario is keep down wages/compensation. i have long believed that
population is inflationary (increasing the prices of anything from groceries to
housing costs). In other words, the demand would shift (number of buyers is one
of the condition where that happens) in those sectors. The way it shifts is not
likely to benefit consumers.
2) The Government:
- The US
government, in particular, has done a really good job of setting up the American
worker for failure. What do i mean? In a more globalized world (where
competition is international instead of purely domestic) the US government has
put the worker behind the proverbial 8 ball. The government sets forth somewhat
strict restrictions that deal with the work day, etc. The more hurtful thing
the government does can be seen in the form of taxation. Social security and
medicare (two train wrecks) add additional costs to hiring US workers that many
less developed countries are not saddled with. The consequent cost increases to
the employer necessitate higher productivity numbers in order for the company to
survive. i always worry that the government will (unintentionally) set the bar
for American workers too high.
Additionally, the government debt is
nothing more than a hidden tax. In the long term you may have to worry about
inflation (possible the hyper kind) and direct government in the economy (a bad
thing).
3) Unions:
- Yet another entity that seeks to set
costs at a higher than market level. Unions have been responsible (or at least
partially so) for such things as overtime rules, working conditions, etc. This
just adds to the cost for the employer. For the working class, it will also
limit employment opportunities (and hours available) as businesses try to avoid
paying benefits (which would further increase costs). The whole goal of unions
is to get compensation beyond market conditions (which in turn leads to less
opportunity). No government employee (paid by the tax payer) should be allowed
to belong to a union. The unions did a pretty good job of killing US
manufacturing.
4) Globalization:
- Sure globalization can get
you cheaper TVs and toys, however, on the employment front things are
different. Globalization basically means more competition in more places (for
the worker). In the third most populous country in the world, this may not be a
good thing. With its population, eventually the US should be a country of cheap
workers. i think it will happen, but it is a matter of when. In other words,
based off of population concerns - eventually wages and standard of living
should drop precipitously in the US.
To summarize (sort of)... the
working and lower middle class face some serious problems in the future. These
problems have been a long time in the making and the solutions will not be
pretty. Basically, the worker faces static or declining wages, less benefits
and less hope for the future. Near static wages coupled with accelerated
inflationary period. In other words, they earn less more but have to spend more
to accommodate their lifestyles. There should also be less opportunity.
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