The Electoral College and You (11/4/2008)
Ok, so i'm not a fan of the Electoral College. So, i decided to play with Excel based off of 2004 election data (if my source is correct).
|
State
|
EC
|
WY
|
EC
(Mill)
|
EC-PV
|
EV?
|
|
Alabama
|
9
|
3.0000
|
4.7785
|
.0014
|
9
|
|
Alaska
|
3
|
1.0000
|
9.5970
|
.0031
|
1
|
|
Arizona
|
10
|
3.3333
|
4.9687
|
.0022
|
10
|
|
Arkansas
|
6
|
2.0000
|
5.6875
|
.0026
|
5
|
|
California
|
55
|
18.3333
|
4.4284
|
.0012
|
62
|
|
Colorado
|
9
|
3.0000
|
4.4338
|
(.0006)
|
10
|
|
Connecticut
|
7
|
2.3333
|
7.9959
|
.0002
|
7
|
|
Delaware
|
3
|
1.0000
|
7.9959
|
.0025
|
1
|
|
DC
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Florida
|
27
|
9.0000
|
3.5481
|
(.0118)
|
38
|
|
Georgia
|
15
|
5.0000
|
4.5429
|
.0010
|
16
|
|
Hawaii
|
4
|
1.3333
|
9.3237
|
.0040
|
2
|
|
Idaho
|
4
|
1.3333
|
6.6840
|
.0026
|
2
|
|
Illinois
|
21
|
7.0000
|
3.9816
|
(.0039)
|
26
|
|
Indiana
|
11
|
3.6667
|
4.4570
|
.0004
|
12
|
|
Iowa
|
7
|
2.3333
|
4.6453
|
.0008
|
7
|
|
Kansas
|
6
|
2.0000
|
5.0515
|
.0015
|
5
|
|
Kentucky
|
8
|
2.6667
|
4.4547
|
.0003
|
8
|
|
Louisiana
|
9
|
3.0000
|
4.6318
|
.0009
|
9
|
|
Maine
|
4
|
1.3333
|
5.3999
|
.0014
|
3
|
|
Maryland
|
10
|
3.3333
|
4.1899
|
(.0008)
|
11
|
|
Massachusetts
|
12
|
4.0000
|
4.1203
|
(.0014)
|
14
|
|
Michigan
|
17
|
5.6667
|
3.5129
|
(.0078)
|
24
|
|
Minnesota
|
10
|
3.3333
|
3.5356
|
(.0044)
|
14
|
|
Mississippi
|
6
|
2.0000
|
5.2067
|
.0018
|
5
|
|
Missouri
|
11
|
3.6667
|
4.0273
|
(.0018)
|
13
|
|
Montana
|
3
|
1.0000
|
6.6601
|
.0019
|
2
|
|
Nebraska
|
5
|
1.6667
|
6.4252
|
.0030
|
3
|
|
Nevada
|
5
|
1.6667
|
6.0271
|
.0026
|
4
|
|
New
Hampshire
|
4
|
1.3333
|
5.9020
|
.0019
|
3
|
|
New
Jersey
|
15
|
5.0000
|
4.1532
|
(.0015)
|
18
|
|
New
Mexico
|
5
|
1.6667
|
6.6111
|
.0032
|
3
|
|
New York
|
31
|
10.3333
|
4.1943
|
(.0025)
|
36
|
|
North
Carolina
|
15
|
5.0000
|
4.2845
|
(.0006)
|
17
|
|
North
Dakota
|
3
|
1.0000
|
9.5898
|
.0030
|
1
|
|
Ohio
|
20
|
6.6667
|
3.5537
|
(.0086)
|
28
|
|
Oklahoma
|
7
|
2.3333
|
4.7822
|
.0011
|
7
|
|
Oregon
|
7
|
2.3333
|
3.8110
|
(.0019)
|
9
|
|
Pennsylvania
|
21
|
7.0000
|
3.6398
|
(.0079)
|
28
|
|
Rhode
Island
|
4
|
1.3333
|
9.1505
|
.0039
|
2
|
|
South
Carolina
|
8
|
2.6667
|
4.9452
|
.0017
|
8
|
|
South
Dakota
|
3
|
1.0000
|
7.7277
|
.0024
|
1
|
|
Tennessee
|
11
|
3.6667
|
4.5132
|
.0006
|
12
|
|
Texas
|
34
|
11.3333
|
4.5879
|
.0030
|
37
|
|
Utah
|
5
|
1.6667
|
5.3888
|
.0018
|
4
|
|
Vermont
|
3
|
1.0000
|
9.6059
|
.0031
|
1
|
|
Virginia
|
13
|
4.3333
|
4.0646
|
(.0019)
|
15
|
|
Washington
|
11
|
3.6667
|
3.8474
|
(.0028)
|
14
|
|
West
Virginia
|
5
|
1.6667
|
6.6147
|
.0032
|
3
|
|
Wisconsin
|
10
|
3.3333
|
3.3367
|
(.0058)
|
14
|
|
Wyoming
|
3
|
1.000
|
12.3240
|
.0036
|
1
|
Ok, i guess i should explain. EC is current Electoral College votes. WY is the relationship of Wyoming's electoral votes to other states. EC (Mill) is the Electoral College votes per million actual votes. EC-PV is the percentage of Electoral College votes - percentage of the popular vote (negative numbers mean that, in 2004 at least, the Electoral College was overvalued per real votes). EV? is how many Electoral College votes a state would have if it was the EC (Mill) *5 (the actual average was 5.3562, but with a big spread 2.046 ST Dev). i wasn't sure how to handle DC.
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