Thursday, October 3, 2013

Obamacare: Regressive Tax (hypothetical examples)

i was thinking about Obamacare again (there is just so much that doesn't seem right with their pitch).  I have decided that when a government forces a financial cash outflow on people (takes away the option of whether or not to do it) then it becomes a tax. 

So, Obamacare is a tax.  In taxation there are progressive taxes (I hate that term, where the higher the income level the higher the tax rates) and regressive taxes (the higher percentage of income from the lower income groups).

This is one of the many, many places where the "affordable care act fails".  If it is really "affordable" then why are the lower income groups getting some of the worst deals?  Prove it you say?  How about some hypothetical examples. 

First off, assumptions:
* Tax credits will be non-refundable (most tax credits are, and are accounted for at the end of the year).  If these tax credits are refundable, then I have even more issues with the program.
* All of these people are the same age and would receive the same rates from the exchanges.  We'll say the Bronze rate in WA (according to ASPE)
* They didn't claim any deductions and no deduction for Obamacare
* Assume that "insurance" would be withheld semi monthly as well and paid all by worker.  If this increases costs to the employer, then there will be some cost offsetting, whether it is fewer hours or something else. I also assume that for whatever reason the employer is not picking up any of the tab.
* Note*: For some reason, my numbers aren't coming out as smooth as they should or the values I would expect.  The basic premise should be unaffected.
* (A/T) is after taxes - social security, medicare, federal withholding.

Here I go....

Before Obamacare:
Person 1: Hel
Gross Income Level: $15,600 per year ($10/hr for 30 hrs/wk)
Net Income Level*: $12,692
Income Semi Monthly* (after taxes): $523.83

Person 2: Cerberus
Gross Income Level: $41,600 per year ($20 hr for 40 hrs/wk)
Net Income Level: $32,089
Income Semi Monthly (A/T): $1,337.04

Person 3: Garm
Gross Income Level: $89,440 ($40 hr for 40 hrs/wk)
Net Income Level: $64,279.39
Income Semi Monthly (A/T): $2,677.93


After Obamacare:

Person 1: Hel
Premium as % of Gross Income: 20.31%
Premium as % of Net Income: 24.96%
Premium Cost/Year: $3,168
Premium cost per two weeks: $132
Estimated Semi Monthly income after Obamacare: $391.83

Person 1: Cerberus
Premium as % of Gross Income: 7.62%
Premium as % of Net Income: 9.87%
Premium Cost/Year: $3,168
Premium cost per two weeks: $132
Estimated Semi Monthly income after Obamacare: $1205.04

Person 1: Garm
Premium as % of Gross Income: 3.54%%
Premium as % of Net Income: 4.93%
Premium Cost/Year: $3,168
Premium cost per two weeks: $132
Estimated Semi Monthly income after Obamacare: $2,545.93

Conclusions:
Yes Virginia, Obamacare is a highly regressive tax (even more so when you figure that if the credits are not refundable they will be meaningless, since the people in lower tax bracket will not have a taxable liability anyway. 

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