In my first post, I outlined what I thought would be the worst case if there was 100% exposure and it followed the rules of normal distribution (the easiest distribution rules). 8.234 million people could theoretically die in the US in that situation - yes that is massively overstated. I seriously doubt 1 million unless this becomes annualized/seasonalized like the flu. The last several paragraphs of this post are more interesting to me.
Sunday, March 29, 2020
Saturday, March 14, 2020
US COVID 19: My Constroversial Opinion
Reminder: my post is not necessarily reflect the views of anyone - not Goolge, not my ISP, not even humanity. Also remember I am not a virologist, statistician, psychic or human (I really, really hope). I kind of suck at grammar now, so paragraph structure may be off and some breaks are for emphasis.
So what is my ultra-controversial opinion:
The US should have done absolutely NOTHING to stop the spread of the COVID-19 Corona Virus.
What, you say to yourself (semi incensed). Yes, I did just say the US should have done nothing. I view the response by the government and especially dangerous overhype by the media (to me bordering of domestic terrorism - using fear for political purposes) as worse than the disease.
I am not just talking about the massive overreaction in the stock market (though the world is far too dependent on China's supply chains). I am talking about the government cancelling everything and generally trying to control everyone's life - but for what real benefit? The government (especially at the state level) calling for martial law is inevitable.
First off is the COVID really as much of a threat as people are claiming? No, if you believe the media this will be worse than the Spanish Flu of 1918. Let's assume a normal distribution...
at 81.5% of the people would suffer mild to no symptoms. 2.5% of the people would die. 13.5% of the population would become hospitalized.
So why those numbers? 81.5% - 1 standard deviation on both sides plus 13.5% on the light tale. 2.5% either die or don't get it at all. This is probably a little unrealistic as it is doubtful even 75% of the population would even get it. 13.5% hospitailized would be (50-34)-2.5. Now for my real, probably overstated (especially deaths and hospitalization) estimate for the US - truncated.
* Deaths - 8.234 million
* Hospitalizations - 44.468 million
* Not hospitalized/minor - 268.456 million
* Not get at all - 8.234 million
Are 8 million deaths (and change) reason enough for all of the hype and the billions (if not trillions of dollars that this is costing)? In my opinion, no. The more daunting is the 44.468 million potential hospitalizations. Of course, in my view, human life is not worth a whole lot.
The current technique they are pretending to employ - flatten the curve, seems off to me. Wouldn't that just prolong the suffering and cost, not to mention a loss of freedom? It might also be susceptible to more waves of an illness. There is something to be said of developing immunities for future similar outbreaks too. Of course I err on the side of let's get the crap over with as soon as possible.
So what is my ultra-controversial opinion:
The US should have done absolutely NOTHING to stop the spread of the COVID-19 Corona Virus.
What, you say to yourself (semi incensed). Yes, I did just say the US should have done nothing. I view the response by the government and especially dangerous overhype by the media (to me bordering of domestic terrorism - using fear for political purposes) as worse than the disease.
I am not just talking about the massive overreaction in the stock market (though the world is far too dependent on China's supply chains). I am talking about the government cancelling everything and generally trying to control everyone's life - but for what real benefit? The government (especially at the state level) calling for martial law is inevitable.
First off is the COVID really as much of a threat as people are claiming? No, if you believe the media this will be worse than the Spanish Flu of 1918. Let's assume a normal distribution...
at 81.5% of the people would suffer mild to no symptoms. 2.5% of the people would die. 13.5% of the population would become hospitalized.
So why those numbers? 81.5% - 1 standard deviation on both sides plus 13.5% on the light tale. 2.5% either die or don't get it at all. This is probably a little unrealistic as it is doubtful even 75% of the population would even get it. 13.5% hospitailized would be (50-34)-2.5. Now for my real, probably overstated (especially deaths and hospitalization) estimate for the US - truncated.
* Deaths - 8.234 million
* Hospitalizations - 44.468 million
* Not hospitalized/minor - 268.456 million
* Not get at all - 8.234 million
Are 8 million deaths (and change) reason enough for all of the hype and the billions (if not trillions of dollars that this is costing)? In my opinion, no. The more daunting is the 44.468 million potential hospitalizations. Of course, in my view, human life is not worth a whole lot.
The current technique they are pretending to employ - flatten the curve, seems off to me. Wouldn't that just prolong the suffering and cost, not to mention a loss of freedom? It might also be susceptible to more waves of an illness. There is something to be said of developing immunities for future similar outbreaks too. Of course I err on the side of let's get the crap over with as soon as possible.
Wednesday, January 23, 2019
Congratulations Edgar Martinez
Edgar Martinez (my favorite baseball player growing up) has finally been elected to the baseball Hall of Fame. For most of his solid career, he was overshadowed by people like Ken Griffey Jr, Ichiro Suzuki, Alex Rodriguez and others. He battled injuries (mostly leg related) throughout his career and got kind of late start (come on M's, Jim Presley was never that good). Edgar Martinez also got some of the best lines in the Mariners commercials (and some Eagle Hardware ones). i miss the "You've Got to Love These Guys" era.
Friday, September 23, 2016
F the Seattle Mariners
The Seattle Mariners of Fascism-vania (political correctness is an insidious form of fascism) today decided to suspend injured back up catcher Steve Clevenger for the remainder of the season without pay for tweets he made in regards to the black lives matter inspired protests in North Carolina.
i can not abide by this. The tweets he made were supposedly in response to the riots turning more violent and a white man being beaten by black protesters.
The suspension for these comments is completely unwarranted. Nobody would confuse professional athletes for geniuses and his comments were inarticulate. However, the "meat" of the comments held true. Let's clean it up a little to what i think he meant to say.
1) The protesters are acting in an uncivilized manner (kind of like, i don' t know, animals).
2) The violent protesters should be held accountable for their actions (like maybe incarceration).
3) There is somewhat of a double standard regarding the black lives matter group (a group where at least 140,000 people petitioned to be listed as a terrorist group - and by some definitions they should be).
i am supremely disappointed in the Seattle Mariners exercising a fascist response to relatively innocuous free speech (which was not inherently racist). i am so tired of people looking for any "racist" connotations in everything said or written.and the double standard in racism. (people in glass houses should not throw stones).
i can not abide by this. The tweets he made were supposedly in response to the riots turning more violent and a white man being beaten by black protesters.
The suspension for these comments is completely unwarranted. Nobody would confuse professional athletes for geniuses and his comments were inarticulate. However, the "meat" of the comments held true. Let's clean it up a little to what i think he meant to say.
1) The protesters are acting in an uncivilized manner (kind of like, i don' t know, animals).
2) The violent protesters should be held accountable for their actions (like maybe incarceration).
3) There is somewhat of a double standard regarding the black lives matter group (a group where at least 140,000 people petitioned to be listed as a terrorist group - and by some definitions they should be).
i am supremely disappointed in the Seattle Mariners exercising a fascist response to relatively innocuous free speech (which was not inherently racist). i am so tired of people looking for any "racist" connotations in everything said or written.and the double standard in racism. (people in glass houses should not throw stones).
Friday, May 13, 2016
Happy Friday the 13th 2016
Well, it's Friday the 13th (again). i think this is the only Friday the 13th in 2016.
This is a day full of promise and serial killers (named Jason Voorhees - the first movie allegedly taking place on June 13, 1958, which actually was a Friday the 13th). It was Friday the 13th in June of 1980 when the movie was released too (actually the movie was released April 9th).
Some people (except places like France where it is Tuesday the 13th) view this as unlucky. For some reason the number 13 in not well thought of among the superstitious - most incorrect reasoning. Among some people the number 13 is considered lucky
This is a day full of promise and serial killers (named Jason Voorhees - the first movie allegedly taking place on June 13, 1958, which actually was a Friday the 13th). It was Friday the 13th in June of 1980 when the movie was released too (actually the movie was released April 9th).
Some people (except places like France where it is Tuesday the 13th) view this as unlucky. For some reason the number 13 in not well thought of among the superstitious - most incorrect reasoning. Among some people the number 13 is considered lucky
Sunday, April 17, 2016
Snow Storm 2016 (4/16/16)
Well, another "snow storm" hit the area where i am currently existing. Ready for some bad pictures of patio furniture. There normally would be dog pictures, but for some reason the dog is currently not allowed outside alone/off leash (partially due to the Blizzard of 2016). i guess this is technically April 15-17th before 9 AM local time). i'm not sure which event saw more snow, but i think it was this one.
Wet sloppy snow sometimes collapses on itself - making any real measurements dicey (i wonder how those are done anyway).
Now for some bad pictures....
Wet sloppy snow sometimes collapses on itself - making any real measurements dicey (i wonder how those are done anyway).
Now for some bad pictures....
Monday, April 4, 2016
MLB: Who i want to make the playoffs this year
Another season of Major League Baseball is at hand. After today, a team could still be in the race (at most 2 games behind). So all teams have a theoretical shot at winning it all (only a theoretical chance though).
So far today i'm thinking... the Rangers won with one darn hit.
So what teams do i want to see in the playoffs. No sane person would make these picks to make the playoffs . If history is anything to go on the "formatting" will be messed up.
So far today i'm thinking... the Rangers won with one darn hit.
So what teams do i want to see in the playoffs. No sane person would make these picks to make the playoffs . If history is anything to go on the "formatting" will be messed up.
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