The $2 PowerBall Ticket

This refers to the mutli-state lottery game in the US called PowerBall.  i know i have numerous foreign hits - so bear with me...

Starting January 15, 2011, changes to PowerBall's odds and payouts will be enacted.  i was wondering if the new matrix would be a better deal.  It turns out that the cost increasing from $1 to $2 had a big impact on my results.  i decided to compare MegaMillions, PowerBall (now) and PowerBall (January 15, 2011 and after). 


i used (maybe misuesd) a system of Expected Values to compare the odds.  i took [(1/odds) * payout] to come up with expected value contributions from each of the 9 prize levels - which i then added up.  That number gave me an "expected value" of one ticket.  Numbers in parenthesis are negative. 

i use Expected Breakeven as a baseline for when to buy tickets (or i would if i were actually rational).  i kind of like it when the expected value is equal or greater to the ticket price. 

MegaMillions:
* Expected Value at Minimum Jackpot ($12 million): $.2501
* Expected Breakeven (EV = $1): $144 million
* Expected "Profit": ($.7499)

Powerball (Now):
* Expected Value at Minimum Jackpot ($20 million): $.2767
* Expected Breakeven (EV = $1): $162 million
* Expected "Profit": ($.7233)

Powerball (January, 15th and later):
* Expected Value at Minimum Jackpot ($40 million): $.5879
* Expected Breakeven (EV = $2): $288 million
* Expected "Profit": ($1.4121)

Summary: There are some things i like about the new Powerball matrix, however increasing the price from $1 to $2 per ticket kind of sour me on the changes.  It is likely that there will be some higher (and quicker rising) jackpots - but i think the extra dollar isn't worth it. 

Don't get me wrong, the per dollar expected "profits" are better than both MegaMillions and the current Powerball odds/payouts.  So in that regard, it is a slightly better deal.  However, i cannot currently get over the psychological difference between a loss of $.72 - $.75 per play to the $1.41 loss for one play of the new Powerball.  i also view the "expected breakeven" of $288 million a little high.